NEWS: Why Turkey and Argentina are the most vulnerable emerging markets?

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The analysis of foreign exchange reserves and the overall dollar exposure can reveal some of the reasons Turkey and Argentina have the brunt of the latest emerging market asset selling.
Photo: October 2017, Turkey lira banknotes. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/Illustration
Some economists quickly blame it on political issues, high deficits and high inflation, but as these charts show, there are many other underlying reasons.
According to the analysis of Merrill Lynch, the ratio of Turkey's foreign exchange reserves to the debt payable in the coming year is lower than that of most other countries.
Turkey's foreign exchange reserves are less than 90% of the country's debt maturity in 2018, and in the most light, the country will theoretically default if it cannot finance or generate additional reserves from the lending market.
In Argentina, the proportion may now be close to that level, which has sold $8 billion in foreign reserves since the early March, but has failed to prevent a 25% drop in the peso exchange rate.
The ratio between Malaysia and Ukraine is not very good, but at least it remains above the 100% threshold of the minimum safety line.
The International Finance Association (IIF), which tracks capital flows, has also looked at other areas under pressure, such as the foreign exchange exposure of a country's banking sector.


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