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After a short period of Xiaoyangchun, the enthusiasm of China's real estate market failed to continue, and the policy environment began to tighten marginally in mid-April. At the beginning of the second half of the year, the relevant departments strengthened the supervision of real estate trust and foreign debt issuance in turn. The abundant fund situation of real estate enterprises in the first half of the year is expected to be unsustainable. Does this mean that the policy is tightened marginally? Will it last forever?
Analysts believe that the tightening of the financing side of real estate is still the insistence on the keynote of "no speculation in housing", curbing the illegal entry of funds into the real estate market through shadow banking channels, cooling down the land market of some second-tier cities in the early stage, "stabilizing house prices, stabilizing land prices and stabilizing expectations"; however, the external demand is full of uncertainty and the economy is facing a new situation. At the time of pressure, we also need to be alert to the risk of over-regulation of the property market caused by too strict implementation, when real estate policy may be fine-tuned.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Zhongyuan bank, said that by limiting financing, he hoped that the valuable funds could be guided to the real economy as far as possible. It could play the role of three arrows: one is to curb the real estate bubble, to achieve the purpose of housing; two is to provide blood transfusion for the real economy, to stabilize the economic fundamentals; and the three is to reduce housing prices. Costs with price and land price as the core encourage and guide the main bodies to concentrate on their main business and innovation.
"The historic inflection point of housing prices may have emerged, and the risks have been effectively locked in, and the real economy is expected to return properly." He said.
Since this year, the real estate market has maintained resilience as a whole and is an important stabilizer of China's economic growth. However, after the Xiaoyangchun period in March and April, the overall housing market has shown signs of cooling down. The growth rate of investment and new construction has slowed down steadily. Sales has maintained negative growth since this year. The price index of new housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose annually in June. The price of second-hand housing in 29% of cities (20) has been downgraded annually.
Liu Yuan and Xiao Yizong of the Central Plains Group said in their first half of 2009 report earlier this week that, unlike the recovery driven by economic and demographic fundamentals, the nature of the current market recovery is expected to be dominant, and the expected impact is relatively fragile and changeable, which can be seen from the rapid switching of the housing market heat in the first half of the year. Come on.


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