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The data also show that industrial producer factory price index (PPI) fell by 1.2% in September compared with the same period last year, the median value of the Reuters survey forecast dropped by 1.2%, the PPI fell by 0.8% last month, and the PPI has been in negative for three consecutive months. PPI rose 0.1% in September.
Analysts believe that in the short term, pig prices and other factors may still periodically boost inflation, and CPI is expected to run at a high level for some time, which has a certain impact on monetary policy but is not decisive. In terms of PPI, aggregate demand pressure and high base factors promote the deepening of year-on-year deflation, which is expected to remain in a negative growth range for some time in the future, thus increasing the pressure on entity financing costs to rise.
According to Reuters estimates, the CPI growth in September was the highest since November 2013, when it was also 3%, and the PPI growth was the lowest since July 2016, when it was -1.7%.
Detailed data for September:
CPI rose 3% year-on-year (the median in Reuters'survey was up 2.9%).
PPI fell 1.2% year-on-year (median in Reuters poll dropped 1.2%).
- CPI rose 0.9% (Reuters median rose 0.7%) and PPI rose 0.1%.
Food prices in CPI rose 11.2% and non-food prices rose 1.0% year on year.
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The following is a summary of the analyst's comments:
Wang Jingwen, Director of Macroeconomic Research Center, Research Fellow of Minsheng Bank of China:
CPI broke 3 for the first time in the past six years, mainly due to two factors: one is the rise in pork prices; the other is the National Day and other related festival factors. Previous measures of pork supply and price stabilization have begun to take effect. It is expected that pork prices will decline in the fourth quarter and increase in the same quarter, and the decline in the same period is expected to wait until after next Spring Festival.


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