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According to the latest report issued by Standard Chartered Bank, the target range of U.S. federal funds rate will be cut by 0.25 percentage point to 1.25-1.50% at the end of this year, and the U.S. is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of this month and December respectively.
The bank reported that it revised down its annual GDP forecast for the year from 2.3% to 2.2%, mainly because the slowdown in US spending on structures and equipment was more significant than originally expected. As a result, the bank lowered the target range of the US federal funds rate at the end of the year, and its expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was adjusted from 25 basis points in December to 25 basis points in October and December respectively.
Standard Chartered said it believed signs of slower growth and a moderate outlook for inflation had convinced key members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut interest rates in October because of sluggish orders for core capital goods, shrinking corporate margins and a recent slowdown in consumer spending.
However, according to the report, some FOMC members who supported the recent rate cut mentioned that the policy interest rate was "adjusted" in 1998, while only three interest rate cuts were made in that year. In addition, almost half of the FOMC members are opposed to further interest rate cuts. Therefore, the probability of interest rate cuts in December is expected to be five or five waves. However, due to the weak growth momentum in the United States, we believe that there is a possibility of interest rate cuts.


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