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Although trade tensions between the US and China have eased, pushing the stock market back to near record highs, there are still record US $17 trillion bonds with negative yields, and an important market signal of the US economic recession is still flashing.
The European Central Bank has further cut its already negative deposit rate and announced that it will restart its asset purchase program, with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates again as early as next week.
"The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are leading more and more central banks around the world to cut interest rates. Fiscal stimulus is not far away, but the yield curve still seems to suggest a recession, "Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC, wrote in a note to clients.
According to a Reuters poll of 500 forecasters around the world this month, growth and inflation expectations in most economies seem to be declining, or at best maintaining a moderate historical level.
Although almost all major central banks are expected to ease policy next year, 71% of the 177 analysts who answered an additional question said the global economic downturn is more likely to intensify than a simultaneous rebound.
This view is quite different from that of six months ago, when half of the analysts had both views on what was more likely to happen. Many analysts' optimism that trade tensions between China and the US will ease now seems to have subsided.
Brexit is still a worry, if there is a disordered brexit, it will cause a broader blow to confidence. At present, it seems that the brexit may be postponed again.
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sales@tanchin.hk for any inquiry
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