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The latest data shows that China's economy shows signs of stabilizing at the end of the year. The growth rate of industry and consumption in November was better than expected, with both hitting a five-month high and investment holding steady. Analysts believe that the slowdown of China's economic growth has been suspended. With the phased results of China US negotiations and the continuous implementation of domestic policies to stabilize growth, the improvement of the internal and external environment will help the economy to stop the pace of accelerated slowdown in the fourth quarter.
However, they also pointed out that despite the suspension of downward pressure on the economy, various challenges and uncertainties remain in the next year, investment in infrastructure and manufacturing industry is still at a low level, while real estate investment is resilient, but the downward trend next year is inevitable, so policies need to continue to work, play the role of infrastructure as a foundation, and release micro vitality.
"The economic data in November shows that the trend of economic stabilization and recovery continues to be confirmed, and the supply and demand level has improved. With the global economy becoming stable and the domestic policy of stable growth continues, the demand will continue to improve in the future." Southwest Securities macro analysts Yang yewei and Zhang Wei said in their comments.
They also pointed out that real estate continues to be strong and resilient, infrastructure will slightly improve with the centralized issuance of local special bonds, while the improvement of terminal demand and price recovery will drive the recovery of manufacturing investment.
Jiang Chao and Yu Bo of the macro team of Haitong Securities mentioned that from the high-frequency data since December, the growth rate of real estate and automobile sales rose and fell, the growth rate of coal consumption for power generation and crude steel production both picked up, pointing to the slow and stable terminal demand and the continuous improvement of industrial production. The conclusion of the first stage trade agreement between China and the United States also means that the trade between China and the United States is from friction to relaxation, and the economy between China and the United States is from decoupling to integration.


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