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Analysts at TD securities estimate that if the Turkish Lira continues to be under pressure, the foreign exchange reserves could run out as early as July. Some analysts say the country's net foreign exchange reserves, excluding currency swaps, may have fallen into negative territory.
Turkey's central bank said last week that its "net" international reserves had fallen to $25.9 billion from more than $40 billion at the beginning of the year.
However, some economists stressed that the $25 billion currency swap by the central bank to reduce the pressure exaggerates the current external reserve figures, because they increase the size of assets in the balance sheet but do not have corresponding liabilities.
"In short, the Turkish central bank may have only $1.4 billion in net reserves as of April 22," said Cristian Maggio, head of emerging markets strategy at dominion securities, which subtracted the size of the swap.
"But currency swaps increased another $1.8 billion to $25.6 billion on April 22-24, indicating that the central bank's net reserves have run out since the beginning of this week."


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