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The growing differences between China and the United States over Hong Kong's autonomy, the response to the new crown epidemic, and the progress in the implementation of the first phase of the trade agreement have led to the most volatile trend and pressure on the RMB in recent months.
The yuan hit a record low against the U.S. dollar last week, and despite a rebound, analysts are increasingly wary of a sharp fall in the yuan in the coming months that could have an impact on stock markets and other Asian currencies.
"I'm a little worried about that," Craig Chan, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Nomura, told investors at an online seminar this week.
He said it was "just a matter of time" for the yuan to fall below 7.2, and that China's failure to meet us commodity purchasing targets was a major risk to the renminbi's further decline.
"The trigger for these negative factors may actually spread to global markets." Chan said.
 
Chan is not alone in this view. Even if the dollar has suffered its worst decline in recent months, analysts at Barclays, ANZ, Goldman Sachs and others are increasingly convinced that the dollar / yuan will rise in the coming months.


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